Eli Lilly has seen its shares plummet during intraday trading on Tuesday due to a reduction in their fourth-quarter and full-year revenue expectations, primarily driven by slower-than-expected growth in its incretin division in the United States. The pharmaceutical giant, a formidable player in the industry, is now anticipating fourth-quarter revenues to be around $13.5 billion—this figure is $400 million lower than the low end of their previous guidance.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet had been forecasting revenues of approximately $13.93 billion, leading to a significant decline in Lilly's stock price, which fell by 7.5% during midday trading. This adjusted top-line forecast indicates a 45% growth compared to the same period in 2023, driven by projected quarterly sales of $3.5 billion for Mounjaro, Lilly's diabetes treatment, and $1.9 billion for Zepbound, a drug aimed at aiding weight loss. Chief Executive David Ricks commented on this development, stating, "While the US incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter.
This, along with lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our fourth-quarter results." Moreover, revenue deriving from products outside of the incretin category is forecasted to have increased by 20% within the quarter, with significant contributions noted in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience segments.
This information underscores the resilience of Lilly’s portfolio in therapeutic areas beyond diabetes treatment. Looking ahead to the full year, Eli Lilly is now anticipating total revenues to be around $45 billion. This figure is slightly below the previously estimated range of $45.4 billion to $46 billion that was shared at the conclusion of October.
The consensus among FactSet analysts places the forecast for 2024's revenues at approximately $45.47 billion. This outlook suggests a year-over-year growth rate of 32%, which indicates that despite the recent adjustments, the company's overall trajectory remains positive. Importantly, Eli Lilly is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and 2024 financial results on February 6.
Furthermore, the expectations for 2025 include revenue projections ranging from $58 billion to $61 billion, which reflects a robust growth rate of 32% at the midpoint of the previous year's guidance. Analysts are currently predicting that sales for the ongoing year will land around $58.44 billion. In a bid to enhance its production capabilities, the company is planning to bring additional manufacturing capacity online, with expectations to yield at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of this year compared to the first half of 2024.
This move underlines Eli Lilly's commitment to meeting increasing market demand and sustaining its growth momentum in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape..