European Markets Face Caution Amid US Government Shutdown Worries
2 months ago

Caution gripped European markets on Friday, with all blue-chip indices firmly in the red, while the UK's FTSE 100 dropped 0.26%. Asian markets also ended the session lower, but US trading maintained an upbeat tone at midday local time as lawmakers rushed to prevent a US government shutdown after President-elect Donald Trump rejected a bipartisan plan from Congress. "Defeating the House GOP bill means high odds that the government will have to begin shutting down after midnight tonight when funding arrangements expire.

A temporary funding arrangement through a continuing resolution may be achieved, but Trump is opposed to that too. A shutdown could affect a whole range of services including travel in the US at a critical time during the holidays, so make contingency plans if you can at this late stage," Scotiabank stated in a note. Additionally, sentiment was dampened by the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge missing expectations.

In November, the annual personal consumption expenditures price index rose to 2.4%, compared to 2.3% a month earlier, falling short of the 2.5% consensus. Back in Great Britain, the retail sales bounce-back in November disappointed on both a monthly and annual basis. The Confederation of British Industry's distributive trades survey for December showed improvement but did not meet expectations. "Retailers have endured a gloomy festive period, with annual sales declining for a third consecutive month.

Looking ahead, retailers expect sales to fall again in January, while wholesalers and motor traders are braced for sharper sales declines," remarked Martin Sartorius, the confederation's principal economist, in a note. "The Government can take steps to support firms' confidence by implementing a faster, more transformative timetable for business rates reform and developing a long-term, modern industrial strategy to unlock innovation, attract investment, and drive sustainable economic growth." In company news, cruise operator Carnival plc ($CUK) saw shares increase by 3.62% after reporting a return to net income in fiscal 2024 alongside higher revenue.

Their outlook for fiscal 2025 was also optimistic, expecting a 20% annual increase in adjusted net income. "This has been an incredibly strong finish to a record year. Revenues hit an all-time high driven by a strong demand environment that we elevated throughout the year, enabling us to outperform our initial 2024 guidance by $700 million and deliver nearly $2 billion more to the bottom line, year over year," noted Carnival Chief Executive Officer Josh Weinstein.

"The progress was broad-based as we drove strong pricing in 2024 compared to 2023 across our major cruise lines and trades.".

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Economic Calendar

Unemployment Rate
2025-03-12 06:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
7.2%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Retail Sales y/y
2025-03-12 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
4.0%

The main objective of the Retail Trade (or Retail Sales) Indices (RTI) is to obtain the fundamental characteristics of companies dedicated to the exercise of retail sales in Spain, which facilitates measuring in the short term, the development of activity in the sector.

ECB Press Conference, ECB President Speaks
2025-03-12 09:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
MBA Mortgage Applications
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
20.4%

The Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances.

OPEC Meeting
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.3%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.5%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.0%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Crude Oil Inventories
2025-03-12 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
433.8 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Interest Rate Decision
2025-03-12 14:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.00%

The Bank carries out monetary policy by influencing short-term interest rates.

Federal Budget Balance
2025-03-12 19:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-129.0 B USD

The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Financial Management Service, Department of the Treasury, and after approval by the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

Building Approvals m/m
2025-03-13 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
6.3%
Previous
0.7%

This indicator shows the number of permits for new construction projects.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
0.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Producer and Import Prices y/y
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.3%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Producer and Import Prices m/m
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.1%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-2.0%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
-1.1%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.6%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.3%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
221 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.5%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Building Permits m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
11.0%

The Building Permits Survey covers all Canadian municipalities that issue permits.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-03-13 15:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1760 BCF

This report tracks U.

Food Price Index (FPI) m/m
2025-03-13 22:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.9%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

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