US Stocks Rally as Inflation Data Eases Shutdown Fears
2 months ago

The US equity markets experienced a notable recovery after a steep decline prior to the market opening, driven by favorable inflation figures that alleviated worries of an impending partial government shutdown. The S&P 500 surged by 1.7% to reach 5,967.8, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.8% to 19,707.4, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 1.8% landing at 43,094.9.

All sectors experienced gains during intraday trading, with real estate, healthcare, and financials leading the pack. Prior to the market's regular trading hours, stocks were in a downturn, with the Dow and Nasdaq each dropping over 250 points and the S&P 500 down by 50 points. While concerns linger about the potential for a partial shutdown of the US government, the inflation data, favored by the Federal Reserve, released on Friday provided some comfort, revealing a slowdown in month-over-month price growth.

The CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the fear gauge, dropped by 24% post-lunch as a reaction to the news. A bill proposed by House Republicans aimed at suspending the debt ceiling for two years and funding the government for three months did not pass late Thursday, indicating that without an agreement by Friday, a partial shutdown could commence today as stated in a research note from D.A.

Davidson. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who previously negotiated the bipartisan deal that was rejected by President-Elect Trump, mentioned to reporters that he has a strategy and anticipates another vote soon, as reported by CNN. Turning to economic indicators, the headline PCE price index saw a modest increase of 0.1% in November, a slight decrease from the 0.2% rise observed in October.

On a yearly basis, inflation edged up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Analysts on Wall Street had anticipated a sequential increase of 0.2% and an annualized rate of 2.5%. The Fed's core measure, excluding food and energy costs, remained unchanged at an annualized rate of 2.8%, but showed a decline from 0.3% to 0.1% on a sequential basis.

Predictions for these metrics had been set at 2.9% and 0.2% growth, respectively. As for Treasury yields, the day saw mixed results, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 4.8 basis points to rest at 4.52%. In corporate updates, Nike reported a dip in fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue. Truist Securities highlighted that CEO Elliot Hill's rapid turnaround initiatives exerted pressure on the outlook for the second half of fiscal 2025.

FedEx, on the other hand, announced that its fiscal second-quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations, although its revenue fell short of forecasts. The parcel delivery service revealed plans to separate its freight operations into a publicly listed company. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures declined by 0.7% to $68.91 a barrel..

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Economic Calendar

Unemployment Rate
2025-03-12 06:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
7.2%

Up to and including March 2005, data refers to all persons of working age who during the reference week were not employed, but were willing and able to work and had looked for work (or would have looked for work if they had not been temporarily prevented from doing so) during the last four weeks.

Retail Sales y/y
2025-03-12 09:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
4.0%

The main objective of the Retail Trade (or Retail Sales) Indices (RTI) is to obtain the fundamental characteristics of companies dedicated to the exercise of retail sales in Spain, which facilitates measuring in the short term, the development of activity in the sector.

ECB Press Conference, ECB President Speaks
2025-03-12 09:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
MBA Mortgage Applications
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
20.4%

The Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey contains 15 indices covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances.

OPEC Meeting
2025-03-12 12:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.3%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

Bureau of Labour Statistics also calculates and publishes indexes for special aggregations, such as energy items, that cut across the above classification scheme.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.5%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y
2025-03-12 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.0%

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) provides an estimate of the price change between any two periods.

Crude Oil Inventories
2025-03-12 14:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
433.8 M Barrels

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides timely information on supply and prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products in the context of historical data and forecasts.

Interest Rate Decision
2025-03-12 14:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.00%

The Bank carries out monetary policy by influencing short-term interest rates.

Federal Budget Balance
2025-03-12 19:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-129.0 B USD

The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Financial Management Service, Department of the Treasury, and after approval by the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

Building Approvals m/m
2025-03-13 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
6.3%
Previous
0.7%

This indicator shows the number of permits for new construction projects.

Consumer Price Index y/y
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
1.3%
Previous
0.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2025-03-13 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.6%
Previous
0.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of changes in prices.

Producer and Import Prices y/y
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-0.3%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Producer and Import Prices m/m
2025-03-13 08:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.1%

The producer price index relates to goods produced and sold on the domestic market or exported by enterprises based in Switzerland.

Industrial Production y/y
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-2.0%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Industrial Production m/m
2025-03-13 11:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.8%
Previous
-1.1%

The Industrial Production Index is a business cycle indicator showing the output and activity of industry.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.6%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Core Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.3%

Because prices for food and energy have tended to be so erratic in recent years, some economists prefer to focus attention on an index measuring prices for finished goods other than foods and energy as a better measure of the so-called core or underlying rate of inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
221 000

Initial Jobless Claims is a report issued by the U.

Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
3.5%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

Building Permits m/m
2025-03-13 13:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
11.0%

The Building Permits Survey covers all Canadian municipalities that issue permits.

Natural Gas Storage
2025-03-13 15:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1760 BCF

This report tracks U.

Food Price Index (FPI) m/m
2025-03-13 22:45:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.9%

The Food Price Index (FPI) measures the price change rate of a fixed basket of food goods and services purchased by households.

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