Traders are bracing for significant price fluctuations for Ether (ETH) in the lead-up to critical macroeconomic events, particularly the upcoming US presidential election on November 5. Nick Forster, the founder of Derive, highlighted in a recent analysis dated October 2 that the forward volatility of Ether is expected to surge between October 25 and November 8, coinciding with a pivotal moment in American politics. Forster pointed out that the outcome of the US election could have profound implications for ETH prices.
This is largely because of Ether's integral relationship with the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, which may encounter increased regulatory scrutiny based on the elected president's perspective on cryptocurrencies. Data from Derive indicates a noteworthy 68% probability of Ether's price swinging between -14% and +16% within three days post-election, and an even more striking 95% chance of experiencing movements ranging from -26% to +35%. As of the last report, the forward volatility for Ether was recorded at 76.6%, while Bitcoin (BTC) registered at 69.8%.
This data suggests that traders are gearing up for substantial market movement during this crucial period, with Ether appearing to be more reactive to external events than Bitcoin. Forster further elaborated that confidence in Bitcoin persists, as traders regard it as a digital store of value with relatively less vulnerability to regulatory shifts in comparison to Ethereum. As the political climate intensifies leading up to election day, traders are adjusting their strategies to accommodate potential drastic shifts in ETH prices.
This sentiment is reflected in the market pricing for Ether, which has recently dropped to $2,364, representing a 5.93% decline since October 2. Despite the high expectations surrounding the anticipated launch of the Ether ETF back in July, its historical debut has yet to significantly enhance Ether's pricing dynamics, reflecting the complexities that accompany cryptocurrency investments amid uncertain regulatory landscapes..