Understanding the Federal Reserve's Potential Rate Cuts Amid Economic Uncertainties
2 months ago

The Federal Reserve is poised to face a series of complexities highlighted in the upcoming October employment report, which is scheduled for release just before the Federal Reserve's key meeting on November 6-7. Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY, emphasizes the critical indicators that Fed policymakers will scrutinize.

A marked slowdown in wage growth, combined with a significant uptick in the unemployment rate, has the potential to steer these data-sensitive policymakers towards reevaluating their current stance on interest rates. Boussour points out that if the economy shows signs of weakening, these indicators could prompt the Fed to consider a substantial 50 basis point rate cut in their next monetary policy decision.

On the other hand, Neil Dutta, the head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, projects an even more aggressive response from the Fed. Dutta forecasts two notable 50 basis point rate cuts in the months of November and December. This anticipation stems from a complex backdrop, including ongoing strikes that disrupt various sectors and significant economic impacts caused by hurricane damage.

As the economy navigates through these challenges, the Federal Reserve's strategies may shift dramatically, reflecting the changing landscape shaped by these recent developments..

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Economic Calendar

Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-30 01:30:00
Actual
49.6
Forecast
49.5
Previous
49.0 R (49.5)

The Nomura/JMMA Japan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is compiled by Markit Economics in association with Nomura (www.

Consumer Confidence
2024-12-30 07:00:00
Actual
-8.6
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Previous
-7.4

The Consumer Barometer includes questions about certain economic matters.

Nationwide House Prices y/y
2024-12-30 08:00:00
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Previous
3.7%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

Nationwide House Prices m/m
2024-12-30 08:00:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
1.2%

Nationwide House Prices measure a change in value caused by inflation using a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.

KOF Leading Indicator
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
99.5
Forecast
101.1
Previous
102.9 R (101.8)

KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) Leading Indicator (KOF economic barometer) is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules: The Core GDP module (GDP excluding construction and banking), the Construction module, and the Banking module.

Final Consumer Price Index y/y
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
2.8%
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Consumer Price Index m/m
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
0.4%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure of the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by the population that reside in family dwellings in Spain.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices m/m
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
0.4%
Forecast
0.3%
Previous
0.0%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices y/y
2024-12-30 09:00:00
Actual
2.8%
Forecast
2.6%
Previous
2.4%

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is a statistical indicator whose objective is to provide a common measurement of inflation which facilitates carrying out international comparisons and therefore examines compliance with fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty demands for entrance into European Monetary Union.

Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Survey)
2024-12-30 15:45:00
Actual
36.9
Forecast
42.7
Previous
40.2

The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly ‘first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.

Pending Home Sales m/m
2024-12-30 16:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
2.0%

National Association of Realtor's (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is released during the first week of each month.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
2024-12-30 16:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
-2.7

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey among executives, who report on how business conditions have changed for a number of indicators, such as production, new orders, employment, prices and company outlook.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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Private Sector Credit m/m
2024-12-31 01:30:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
0.5%

This indicator measures the change in the total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries.

Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-31 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
50.3
Previous
50.3

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early indication of the economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector on a monthly basis.

Non-Manufacturing PMI
2024-12-31 02:30:00
Actual
Forecast
50.2
Previous
50.0

In China, the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index survey is based on data collected from a representative panel of 1,200 enterprises from the non-manufacturing sector.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-31 11:30:00
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2024-12-31 11:45:00
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2024-12-31 13:00:00
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2024-12-31 13:05:00
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Bank Holiday
2024-12-31 13:10:00
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Redbook Retail Sales
2024-12-31 14:55:00
Actual
Forecast
Previous
5.9%

The LJR Redbook survey tracks 15 retail stores every week to determine the changes in sales.

House Price Index m/m
2024-12-31 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
0.5%
Previous
0.7%

The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices.

Bank Holiday
2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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2024-12-30 23:00:00
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S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index y/y
2024-12-31 15:00:00
Actual
Forecast
4.1%
Previous
4.6%

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States.

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